American four-year universities could see up to a 20 percent drop in enrollment for the fall semester, according to multiple surveys conducted by the higher education marketers at SimpsonScarborough.

Ten percent of high school seniors who planned to enroll before the coronavirus pandemic have changed plans, and 26 percent of current college students told pollsters they were unlikely to return in the fall.

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Inside Higher Ed reports:

The findings are based on surveys of more than 2,000 college-bound high school seniors and current college students in March, just after the coronavirus began spreading in the United States, and in April, after three weeks of record unemployment claims.

The pandemic shifted students’ perspectives about higher education in a variety of ways, seemingly persuading more to take a gap year off after high school, and exposing the limits of online programs.

In March, 14 percent of college students told pollsters they were unlikely to return to school in the fall, or it was “too soon to tell.” That figure jumped to 26 percent by mid-April. Meanwhile, 85 percent of college students said they want to return to campus, compared to only 15 percent who were content to finish their degrees online, according to the news site.

“We felt after our first survey that we couldn’t make predictions,” SimpsonScarborough chairman Elizabeth Johnson said.

But after a second round of surveys in April confirmed the data, it became clear “the effect on higher education enrollment could be catastrophic,” she said.

Johnson predicts a decline of up to 20 percent based on various factors and she’s encouraging colleges to brace for the impact and develop a plan.

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SimpsonScarborough’s findings echo other recent surveys of parents and students struggling with decisions about college.

A survey of parents by Tyton Partners found many aren’t interested in paying full tuition if online education continues into the fall, while a survey of parents of high school seniors by Lipman Hearne released on Tuesday found more are encouraging their kids to stick to schools close to home.

Of the 1,171 high school senior surveyed last week by Art & Science Group, about 16 percent who planned to attend four-year colleges full-time have changed their minds, according to Inside Higher Ed.

“Colleges will have to conduct outreach to their own population of students to assess the pandemic’s impact on fall enrollment, as changes are bound to vary by institution,” David Hawkins, policy expert at the National Association for College Admission Counseling, told the news site.

“But as a general indicator that times will be difficult moving forward, these surveys are sending a messages to colleges and to policy makers that this crisis might put college out of reach for a large number of students.”

The stark reality for colleges comes as many face public scorn for collecting millions in coronavirus stimulus cash. Elite schools including Yale, Stanford, Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania opted to forego money they were set to receive from the recent federal bailout after President Trump and others pointed out the schools’ multi-billion dollar endowments, Politico reports.

“As you know – this was an interesting story in recent days – I’ve called for Harvard – that’s Harvard University, which has a $40 billion endowment fund – to return the money that it was allocated under the CARES Act,” Trump said last week.

“And I’m pleased to announce Harvard has announced today that they will not accept the funds, nor will Stanford University or many of the others that were involved …”